A default will put Ethiopia among the ranks of a growing number of developing nations that have defaulted on Eurobonds in recent years, including Zambia, Ghana and Sri Lanka. Tunisia, Pakistan and Bolivia are also seen at risk, bond market pricing implies.
The Horn of Africa nation still has a 14-day grace period before it’s deemed to be in default, according to the bond’s prospectus.
The government advised bondholders on Friday that significantly lower foreign-exchange reserves “inevitably impacts the Ministry of Finance’s ability to service imminent external borrowings.”
In its counterproposal for a restructuring, the government asked bondholders to extend the maturity to amortize from July 2028 through to Jan. 2032, and to reduce the coupon to 5.5% from the current 6.625%. However, the face value is to remain at $1 billion, meaning creditors won’t need to swallow a so-called haircut on their holdings.
That proposal implies a present value reduction of about 33% for the debt, using a 12% discount rate, according to Søren Mørch, portfolio manager at Danske Bank Asset Management, which holds the bond.
‘Unnecessary’ Default
An ad hoc committee of bondholders said it views the decision not to make the payment as “both unnecessary and unfortunate.”
Ethiopia is seeking to renegotiate its obligations through the Group of 20’s Common Framework, which has started to gain momentum after Zambia and Ghana made progress restructuring their debts. That allows debt relief from public as well as private lenders to be coordinated, to set debt treatment standards.
Ethiopia had already reached an in-principle agreement with bilateral creditors last month to suspend debt payments, having sought to rework its liabilities since 2021 as a civil war soured investor sentiment and sapped economic growth.
Now the clock is ticking to reach an emergency funding and economic program with the International Monetary Fund, which will lay out the parameters for a debt restructuring. Its Paris Club creditors set a deadline of March 31 to agree the program, or they could declare the debt-service suspension agreed last month null and void.
“It is difficult to move forward until there is an IMF program and a debt sustainability agreement. We should see an agreement around mid-next year at the earliest as a result,” said Kaan Nazli, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman Asset Management, which holds the Ethiopian bond.
The government will hold a call with global investors this week in which it plans to “set out a proposal it may launch related to the eurobond,” according to the ministry’s statement.
The ministry said Ethiopia’s government had proposed the following terms to bondholders during the recent restricted discussions:
- A four-year amortization period from July 2028 to Jan. 2032
- A coupon rate of 5.5%, of which 2.5% would be capitalized during the anticipated four-year IMF program period
- Bondholder committee “continues to remain open for constructive and proactive engagement with the Ethiopian authorities.”