With almost two months behind since the start of negotiations between the United States and Russia on the war in Ukraine, Russia’s recent deadly missile attacks on Zelenskyy’s hometown Kryvyi Rih on April 4 and the Ukrainian city of Sumy on April 13 are a clear indication that Putin is in no hurry to end his invasion. The attacks have come a few days after Russia’s refusal to the US-proposed 30-day unconditional ceasefire- agreed to by Ukraine. Putin’s actions are not only frustrating Trump, who has been attempting to broker a peace deal right from his election campaigns, but have also invited wide criticism from European leaders. With more than 50 people killed and over a 100 injured in Ukraine in a week’s time, EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen has asserted that “Russia was and remains the aggressor, in blatant violation of international law.” The Trump-Zelenskyy showdown at the Oval Office has further acted as a loud wake-up call for Europe to take the matter of Ukrainian security into its own hands.
As opposed to his predecessor, Trump has been scaling back the US security guarantees to Ukraine. He has made it clear that Ukrainian membership of NATO is off the table and US forces will not be deployed in Ukraine as a part of the peace deal. As a result, the responsibility to safeguard Ukrainian security falls on Kyiv’s armed forces and their European partners. European leaders are becoming increasingly aware of the fact that in case of a faltering Ukrainian deterrence, they will be next in line. With the US security support no longer assured, it is becoming clearer by the day that this is Europe’s war to fight. Since the outset of the war, the EU has relied heavily on sanctions as its primary instrument of pressure against Russia. However, as the conflict endures and the stakes rise, there is a growing recognition in Brussels that sanctions alone are insufficient- and that credible, actionable security guarantees must now form a core part of Europe’s peace plan for Ukraine.
Embarking on a rearmament drive, the EU has unveiled the ‘ReArm Europe’ or ‘Readiness 2030’ plan- an ambitious defence package which provides financial levers to its Member States to drive an investment surge in defence capabilities, enabling spending over €800 billion. In addition, a new dedicated instrument for Security Action for Europe, SAFE, allows the Commission to raise up to €150 billion on the capital markets. This proposal also allows the Member States to increase their military budgets up to 1.5% of GDP without this expenditure becoming a part of their national deficits. In addition, it expands the role of the European Investment Bank (EIB) in defence financing. As the continent grapples with slow growth, high debt, and relative economic decline over the years, these relaxations serve as a timely remedy to Europe’s long-standing constraints regarding the economy-security nexus.
While the Union takes concrete steps to boost weapons production, individual countries are also making efforts to radically ramp up their national defence budgets. For instance, Germany has voted on a historic change to the constitutionally enshrined mechanism debt-brake, paving the way for billions of euros in defence and infrastructure spending. Playing a more direct role in enforcing a peace deal in Ukraine, France and UK are leading the way and have formed the “coalition of the willing” committing military assets and possible troop deployments to ensure eventual peace. The Ukrainian and European commanders are attempting to arrive at military presence “on land, in the sky, and at sea.” Although there is a growing consensus within the coalition that the first guarantee of security is support for the Ukrainian army, with an underlying refusal of Russia’s demands of a demilitarized Ukraine, there is still work to be done on the mandate of the troops deployed. French President Macron has gone a step ahead to define them as “reassurance forces” which would be based in strategic locations in Ukraine to deter against potential Russian aggression.
With four meetings held over the last two months, the coalition now comprises of 31 countries, inclusive of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Turkey in addition to countries of the continent. As UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that any Ukraine peace deal would require a “US backstop” to deter Russia from future attacks, through the coalition, the European leaders hope to bring Washington, Europe and Ukraine together on a shared stance, in order to negotiate with the Kremlin. In addition to forces on the ground, European officials believe that it is all the more important that Ukraine be supplied with military hardware for years to come even after a peace deal. Von der Leyen has asserted that the EU’s plan is to turn Ukraine into a “steel porcupine that is indigestible for potential invaders.”
Recognising Russia as a threat to France and Europe, Emmanuel Macron has offered to extend the French nuclear deterrent to European allies with the objective of protecting the continent from any future threat from Moscow. It is interesting to note that France and UK are the only two countries in Europe with nuclear weapons. However, France alone, with 290 nuclear warheads, has a sovereign arsenal, developed entirely by France. These warheads can be fired from France-based aircrafts or submarines. However, the UK, with 229 nuclear warheads, does not have the same strategic room for manoeuvre, and relies on the US for technical input. Further, British weapons, which were developed in collaboration with the US, can only be launched from submarines.
Drawing upon the issues of capabilities, the question emerges whether France’s resources are an enough deterrent to protect the EU. Given Russia’s 5,889 warheads, the power of balance remains unfavourable. Although the French nuclear umbrella is a positive development in providing impetus to European solidarity, it is inevitable that increasing Europe’s arsenal and development systems would come at an additional cost of developing infrastructure in partner countries. Moreover, how a French or a Franco-British European nuclear deterrent may operate is still far from clear. Nonetheless, France’s effort to build trust and confidence among the European allies and showcasing that it is prepared to take on risk to protect the continent- helps create a solid front of European defence.
Although Europe is stepping up on a large scale, the recent radical policy shift by Washington has transformed the perception on what a possible peace deal in Ukraine could look like. After a period of failed ceasefires, it becomes evident that the road to peace and sustainable settlement in Ukraine remains long, uncertain, and burdened with challenges. In case of an eventual cut-off of US weapons, it would be difficult for Ukraine to replace air-defence systems and surface-to-surface ballistic missiles in the short term- a gap that Europe will have to attempt to fill. Europe’s long-term reliance on Washington’s military capabilities makes the European pursuit of ‘independence’ and ‘strategic autonomy’ a major challenge. Further, with Putin making it clear that Russia would not accept any NATO member troops in Ukraine, Kremlin giving up on its maximalist aims seems impossible.
With shifting transatlantic ties and increasing pressure from US on one side and Russia on the other, European security is at peak risk, with the moment calling for unprecedented decisions. What Ukraine needs from its European allies are clear, operational decisions, and a shared vision for the future of the security architecture. Significantly increasing the flow of military aid to Kyiv and strengthening Ukraine’s domestic defence industry, European countries are faced with the task of creating the conditions of absolute Ukrainian national recovery. If Europe can now rise to the moment and deliver the necessary support, Ukraine is poised to stand firm as the continent’s eastern shield—defending not only its own future, but the security of Europe for years to come.